NEW DELHI: The decision hour is upon us. The countdown has begun. The winners of both the open and women’s sections of the 46th Chess Olympiad will be decided later today. Do India have a chance to retain their gold medals? Certainly, perhaps more so for the open team, less so for the women’s side, though there is still a route to a minor miracle there too. Either way, the fate of both Indian teams is no longer entirely in their own hands. They will have to win their own matches and then hope the teams above them slip up elsewhere.On Saturday, in Round 10, India delivered exactly the kind of statement win they needed, beating Uzbekistan’s second team 3.5-0.5 in Samarkand. Praggnanandhaa got things going with a win over Jakhongir Vakhidov, Nihal Sarin cruised to victory after his opponent, Mukhammadzokhid Suyarov, blundered straight out of the opening, and Gukesh added a smooth win of his own with the London System against Ortik Nigmatov.Arjun Erigaisi was the one to leave something on the table. He had a completely winning position against Abdimalik Abdisalimov but couldn’t find the finish, settling for a draw instead.Uzbekistan’s own top team made no such mistakes, crushing Armenia to stay perfect. That result leaves the standings finely poised heading into Sunday’s final round. Uzbekistan lead outright on 18 match points, with India alone in second on 17. Germany, Ukraine and Hungary make up the chasing pack, all on 16.
Open section: India dominant, but the door isn’t fully open
The equation for gold is straightforward, even if the odds require some help. Uzbekistan face Ukraine, a side in decent form themselves after beating China in the penultimate round, with Vassily Ivanchuk and Roman Dehtiarov among those capable of causing an upset.India, meanwhile, take on Hungary, a team missing a bit of firepower at the top (Richard Rapport has been playing solid rather than spectacular chess) but dangerous further down the order, where Gleb Dudin has been in the form of his life.If India beat Hungary and Uzbekistan lose to Ukraine, the gold is India’s outright. If India win and Uzbekistan draw, the two sides finish level on match points, and it comes down to the Sonneborn-Berger tiebreak, which is essentially a measure of the strength of the teams you’ve beaten. It’s not a tiebreak India are likely to win; without many big-margin victories across the tournament, India would probably fall short of Uzbekistan’s score even in a shared-points scenario.If Uzbekistan win regardless of India’s result, they clinch the title. What is virtually certain, though, is a win against Hungary will assure India of at least a silver.
Women’s section, a much tougher ask
The picture is considerably tighter, and less favourable, in the women’s section. India needed something special against China on Saturday to keep their own gold hopes fully alive, and for a long stretch it looked like it might slip away entirely.Koneru Humpy and Divya Deshmukh drew their games on the top two boards, before Vantika Agrawal, despite reaching a promising position, was undone by a fine piece of play from Lu Miaoyi and lost on board three.That left everything resting on Savitha Shri against Zhai Mo on board four.It very nearly didn’t come off. Playing white, Savitha’s 19.Bg5 turned out to be the moment the game nearly slipped away. Zhai’s reply, 19…Nxd4, grabbed a pawn while simultaneously attacking White’s queen, setting up a forced sequence of captures (20.Bxd8 Nxc2 21.Bxc2 Raxd8) that saw both queens and a minor piece come off the board. When the smoke cleared, Savitha was a pawn down, in exactly the kind of position that punishes a single loose moment.What followed instead was one of the gutsiest fightbacks of the tournament. Savitha dug in through a long rook-and-knight middlegame, gradually improving her pieces and refusing to let the earlier deficit rattle her, before finding an outside passed pawn on the a-file that became her lifeline.She played the position very patiently, move after move, all the way up the board, and once it reached a7 with nothing left to stop it, Zhai had no choice but to resign.It kept India’s 2-2 draw against China intact, and with it, India’s gold-medal hopes alive, if only just. That result leaves China on top with 18 points, Kazakhstan second on 17, and India sharing third with Poland and Vietnam on 16.The final-round pairings make India’s route to gold a genuinely narrow one.China face Vietnam, a good side themselves, with their best individual threat likely to come from their fourth board, while Kazakhstan take on Poland, a fixture India know something about, having lost to Poland themselves earlier in the tournament, which is precisely why a Kazakhstan slip there feels realistic.India, for their part, play Georgia, who have a strong line-up on paper, led by Nana Dzagnidze, Bella Khotenashvili, Lela Javakhishvili, and Meri Arabidze on Board 4 for Sunday’s encounter.On the other hand, India have fielded Humpy, Divya, Vantika, and Savitha, with Vantika rested. They have chosen to keep it the same on the final day.For India to have any realistic shot at gold, three things need to happen on the same day.They first need to beat Georgia, and by a healthy margin if possible to boost their own tiebreak score; China must lose outright to Vietnam (a draw would still take China to 19 points, out of India’s reach even with a win); and Kazakhstan must draw or lose to Poland. It isn’t impossible; but asking three separate results to fall the right way in the same round, with China needing to lose rather than merely drop points, is exactly the kind of outside chance that needs a touch of the miraculous.
Savitha Shri in Round 10 of Chess Olympiad (Photo by Michal Walusza for FIDE)
Individual medals in the mix too
Beyond the team standings, both Indian teams have strong individual contenders heading into the final round.Gukesh, on 8.5 points from 10 games, is a serious contender for individual gold on his board, and will face Hungary’s in-form Gleb Dudin, who himself sits on seven from nine, in what could be one of the most closely watched individual match-ups of the day.READ ALSO: Father quit Singapore job, pawned jewellery to fund chess dream: Olympiad-bound Savitha Shri’s storySavitha Shri, unbeaten through nine games and sitting on 8.5 points herself, is in an equally strong position for an individual medal of her own, regardless of how the team competition ultimately resolves.
